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Generalised fuzzy cognitive maps for modelling complex qualitative systems: the case of flood risk reduction planning in Kampala, Uganda

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The Aim of this study was to design a flexible fuzzy cognitifive mapping approach that is capable of modelling and analysisng the behavior of complex qualitative systems. The motivation for designing such a method is to help analyse the behaviour of cmplex social-environmental-technological systems, speciffically, to understand the manifestation of climate risk and analyse possible policy options and development pathways. To Achieve the objective an in-depth analysis of the capabilities of traditional FCMs and its advances in modelling complex qualitative systems were analysed. A flexible approach was desingned based on cogitating complex system dynamics properties and exploring issues that need to be addressed in FCMs to be able to model complex qualitative SD. The efficacy of this approach, was tested in the light of a real world case of the socio-environmental-technological consequences of heavy rainfall in Kampala, Uganda.
Generalised Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (GFCMs) are expert driven that can capture and model complex causal reasoning. GFCMs use fuzzy rules to re[present dynamics of concepts and relations (perceived), including the time dynamics of relations. GFCNs introduces several, single-layer perceptrons to simulate dynamics, i.e. temporally explicit development of concepts and relations. The results explains, the relative, and absolute change the system undergoes overtime ang can also model time decayed and lagged dynamics influences. The results of the simulations using GFCMs explains the evolution of a system to a greater detail while overcoming most drawback. It is concluded that GFCMs are posible improvement over most methods trying to model complex qualitative SD.
Finally, the outcome of this study is to help robust decision making, in the light of uncertainty and complexity. The Study can be useful two groups of stakeholder.i) researchers that try model the behaviour of complex systems in data scare environments/regions and ii) decision makers that wish to try, test and eavluate several development strategies and policy options of pathways for a given system.

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Ketersediaan

B20210419015

D 363.34936 ABH g

Perpustakaan BIG (300)

Tersedia

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

D 363.34936 ABH g

Penerbit

Netherland : University of Twente., 2020

Deskripsi Fisik

xv, 259 hlm. : illus. ; 24 cm.

Bahasa

Inggris

ISBN/ISSN

978-90-365-4964-6

Klasifikasi

363.34936

Tipe Isi

text

Tipe Media

other

Tipe Pembawa

unspecified

Edisi

-

Subjek

Bencana Banjir

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

-

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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