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Artificial ensemble forecasts: an alternative to the numerical weather predictions ensemble. hal. 1-8
Ensemble forecast has been widely used in the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of developed countries to forecast the weather condition. The idea is to use the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models for generating probabilistics forecast which is able to cover uncertainty in the atmospheric behavior as well as in the model itself. indeed, ensemble forecast is able to generate reliable forescat after calibration. This paper explores the current status of weather forecast applied in Indonesia and formulates some potential works dealing with ensemble forecast. It turns to an idea of creating artificial ensemble forecast. An illustration about the proposed methodology is given.
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