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Quantifying the current state of earthquake hazards in Nepal

Quantitative estimates of present-day earthquake hazard in major cities are essential for effective policymaking, community development, and seismic risk reduction. In this study, we develop a statistical analysis of natural times in Nepal to compute earthquake potential score (EPS) that describes the current level of seismic progression of a city through irregular repetitive cycle of regional earthquakes. The method, known as earthquake nowcasting (Rundle et al., 2016), uses a discrete time domain of natural times, cumulative counts of small interevent earthquakes, to characterize the present state of fault system by way of considering all earthquake events, including dependent, induced, or triggered seismicity. Data analysis and statistical inference of natural times corresponding to M ​≥ ​6 events assign EPS values between 59% and 99% to 24 major cities of Nepal, with the scores of metropolitan areas Kathmandu (95%), Pokhara (93%), Lalitpur (95%), Bharatpur (93%), Biratnagar (92%), and Birganj (93%). Physically, these nowcast scores, viewed as a way of tectonic stress accumulation since the last event, provide a realistic estimate on how far along is a city in its earthquake cycle of large sized events at current time. The proposed analysis and emanated results produce valuable information to the academia, industry, and public on the current dynamical state of seismic hazard in the highly earthquake prone Nepal region.

Ketersediaan
115551.136Perpustakaan BIG (Eksternal Harddisk)Tersedia
Informasi Detail
Judul Seri
Applied Computing and Geoscience - Open Access
No. Panggil
551.136
Penerbit
Amsterdam : Elsevier.,
Deskripsi Fisik
8 hlm PDF, 2.643 KB
Bahasa
Inggris
ISBN/ISSN
2590-1974
Klasifikasi
551.136
Tipe Isi
text
Tipe Media
-
Tipe Pembawa
-
Edisi
Vol.10, June 2021
Subjek
Nepal
Earthquake nowcasting
Probability models
Hazard estimation
Info Detail Spesifik
-
Pernyataan Tanggungjawab
Versi lain/terkait

Tidak tersedia versi lain

Lampiran Berkas
  • Quantifying the current state of earthquake hazards in Nepal
    Quantitative estimates of present-day earthquake hazard in major cities are essential for effective policymaking, community development, and seismic risk reduction. In this study, we develop a statistical analysis of natural times in Nepal to compute earthquake potential score (EPS) that describes the current level of seismic progression of a city through irregular repetitive cycle of regional earthquakes. The method, known as earthquake nowcasting (Rundle et al., 2016), uses a discrete time domain of natural times, cumulative counts of small interevent earthquakes, to characterize the present state of fault system by way of considering all earthquake events, including dependent, induced, or triggered seismicity. Data analysis and statistical inference of natural times corresponding to M ​≥ ​6 events assign EPS values between 59% and 99% to 24 major cities of Nepal, with the scores of metropolitan areas Kathmandu (95%), Pokhara (93%), Lalitpur (95%), Bharatpur (93%), Biratnagar (92%), and Birganj (93%). Physically, these nowcast scores, viewed as a way of tectonic stress accumulation since the last event, provide a realistic estimate on how far along is a city in its earthquake cycle of large sized events at current time. The proposed analysis and emanated results produce valuable information to the academia, industry, and public on the current dynamical state of seismic hazard in the highly earthquake prone Nepal region.
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