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Applying Data Analysis and Machine Learning Methods to Predict Permafrost Coast Erosion

This study aims to establish a scientific and methodological basis for predicting shoreline positions using modern data analysis and machine learning techniques. The focus area is a 5 km section of the Ural coast along Baydaratskaya Bay in the Kara Sea. This region was selected due to its diverse geomorphological features, varied lithological composition, and significant presence of permafrost processes, all contributing to complex patterns of shoreline change. Applying advanced data analysis methods, including correlation and factor analysis, enables the identification of natural signs that highlight areas of active coastal retreat. These insights are valuable in arctic development planning, as they help to recognize zones at the highest risk of significant shoreline transformation. The erosion process can be conceptualized as comprising two primary components to construct a predictive model for coastal retreat. The first is a random variable that encapsulates the effects of local structural changes in the coastline alongside fluctuations due to climatic conditions. This component can be statistically characterized to define a confidence interval for natural variability. The second component represents a systematic shift, which reflects regular changes in average shoreline positions over time. This systematic component is more suited to predictive modeling. Thus, modern information processing methods allow us to move from descriptive to numerical assessments of the dynamics of coastal processes. The goal is ultimately to support responsible and sustainable development in the highly sensitive arctic region.

Ketersediaan
#
Perpustakaan BIG (Eksternal Harddisk) 550
344
Tersedia
Informasi Detail
Judul Seri
Geosciences
No. Panggil
550
Penerbit
Switzerland : MPDI.,
Deskripsi Fisik
19 hlm PDF, 2.124 KB
Bahasa
Inggris
ISBN/ISSN
2076-3263
Klasifikasi
550
Tipe Isi
text
Tipe Media
-
Tipe Pembawa
online resource
Edisi
Vol.15, Issue 1, January 2025
Subjek
Machine Learning
Permafrost
arctic
coastal retreat
exogenous processes
Kara Sea
data analysis
Info Detail Spesifik
Geosciences
Pernyataan Tanggungjawab
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Tidak tersedia versi lain

Lampiran Berkas
  • Applying Data Analysis and Machine Learning Methods to Predict Permafrost Coast Erosion
    This study aims to establish a scientific and methodological basis for predicting shoreline positions using modern data analysis and machine learning techniques. The focus area is a 5 km section of the Ural coast along Baydaratskaya Bay in the Kara Sea. This region was selected due to its diverse geomorphological features, varied lithological composition, and significant presence of permafrost processes, all contributing to complex patterns of shoreline change. Applying advanced data analysis methods, including correlation and factor analysis, enables the identification of natural signs that highlight areas of active coastal retreat. These insights are valuable in arctic development planning, as they help to recognize zones at the highest risk of significant shoreline transformation. The erosion process can be conceptualized as comprising two primary components to construct a predictive model for coastal retreat. The first is a random variable that encapsulates the effects of local structural changes in the coastline alongside fluctuations due to climatic conditions. This component can be statistically characterized to define a confidence interval for natural variability. The second component represents a systematic shift, which reflects regular changes in average shoreline positions over time. This systematic component is more suited to predictive modeling. Thus, modern information processing methods allow us to move from descriptive to numerical assessments of the dynamics of coastal processes. The goal is ultimately to support responsible and sustainable development in the highly sensitive arctic region.
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