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Tools for Predicting Long Runout Landslides
One of the most important issues in landslide hazard management is predicting the runout of a landslide event. Current technology and modeling help to analyze landslides in terms of overall stability, triggers, and sensitivity to environmental changes, but the length of the runout remains a difficult variable to predict. In this study, we review how runout is measured and conclude that the landslide length divided by the square root of the landslide area is a value that scales well and also is not biased by the overall topographic slope. The more common measurement of runout, i.e., landslide height divided by length, is biased by topography, yet correlates well to specific predictive parameters. Next, we explore tools to predict landslide runout. Regional inventories of landslides can establish typical runout ranges as a function of the landslide area. The soil density can be used predict contractive behavior and flow-like responses in long runout landslides. Topographic curvature also correlates to runout, with concave slopes that accumulate moisture being more likely to generate long runout events. Sites with previous landslide movement are likely to travel farther upon reactivation, as are landslide sites close to water sources and those with larger upslope contributing areas.
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